Symposium on the 50th
Anniversary
of
Operational Numerical
Weather Prediction
 14-17 June 2004
University of Maryland
University College Inn and Conference Center

Monday Tuesday Thursday

Wednesday, June 16
Morning

7:30am-6:00pm

  

Registration

Session 5:

  

From Model Predictions to Forecasters: Then and Now (cont.)
Session Chair: Bill Bonner, NMC/NCEP (ret.)

8:00am

  
5.1   A Vision for Environmental Services as Numerical Weather Prediction Enters the Next 50 Years
Jack Hayes, National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Science and Technology (Colonel, USAF, ret.)

8:25am

  
5.2   A Customer Perspective on the Evolution of Numerical Weather Prediction as Applied to Naval Operations - The Real Story
Carl Thormeyer, FNMOC

8:50am

  
5.3   Evolution of the Relationship Between Weather Forecasters and Numerical Models Over the Last 50 Years
James Hoke, NCEP

9:05am

  
5.4   Initial State Sensitivity Experiments in a Real Data Model
Celeste A. Saulo, University of Buenos Aires, and Lee A. Byerle, Jennifer C. Roman, Jan Paegle, and Julia Nogues-Paegle University of Utah

9:20am

  
5.5   HPC Operations
Michael Schichtel and Peter Manousos
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, NCEP

9:35am

  
5.6   30 Years of Operational Ocean Wave Forecasting at Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center
Paul Wittmann and Michael Clancy, FNMOC

9:50am

  
5.7   Forecasting Oceanic Cyclones at the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center
Joseph Sienkiewicz, Scott Prosise, and Anthony Crutch
NOAA/NWS/NCEP Ocean Prediction Center

10:05am

  
5.8   Objective Interpretation of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output: A Perspective Based on Verification of Temperature and Precipitation Guidance
Paul Dallavalle and Valery Dagostaro
Meteorological Development Laboratory
Office of Science and Technology
National Weather Service/NOAA

10:20-10:50am

  

Break

Session 6:

  

Evolution of Data Assimilation
Session Chair: Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland

10:50am

  
6.1   A History of the U.S. Navy's Numerical Objective Analysis and Data Assimilation
Edward H. Barker, NRL

11:15am

  
6.2   Maturation of Data Assimilation Over the Last Two Decades
John Derber, NCEP

11:40am

  
6.3   Exploring New Pathways in Precipitation Assimilation
Arthur Y. Hou and Sara Q. Zhang
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

11:55am

  
6.4   Introduction of Temperature Observation of Radiosonde in Place of Geopotential Height to the Global Three-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation System in JMA
Akio Narui
Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency

12:10am

  
6.5   Impact Experiments on GMAO Data Assimilation and Forecast Systems with MODIS Winds during MOWSAP
Lars Peter Riishojgaard and Yanqiu Zhu
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC
Afternoon

12:25-2:00pm

  

Poster Discussion and Lunch
Poster Session Chair: Kris Harper, Historian of Science
Poster Session #3  
P3.1   Application of Data Assimilation Techniques for Space Weather
Tim Fuller-Rowell, Space Environment Center
P3.2   Assimilation of GPS occultation data into the NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS)
Gerald E. Nedoluha1, Axel von Engeln2, Nancy L. Baker3, Clay B. Blankenship3 and, Edward H. Barker3
1Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC,
2Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Germany
3Naval Research Laboratory

P3.3   Data Assimilation: The Combination of Numerical Modeling and Observations
Zhaoxia Pu, Goddard Earth Sciences and Technology Center
P3.4   Testing the Local Ensemble Kalman Filter on the NCEP Global Forecasting System
Istvan Szunyogh1, Eric Kostelich2, Gyorgyi Gyarmati1, Brian R. Hunt1, Edward Ott1, Aleksey V. Zimin1, Eugenia Kalnay1, Dhanurjay Patil1, and James A. Yorke1
1University of Maryland
2Arizona State University

P3.5   A modular, efficient design of the Local Ensemble Kalman Filter
Eric Kostelich, Arizona State University
Istvan Szunyogh, Gyorgyi Gyarmati, Brian R. Hunt, Edward Ott, Aleksey V. Zimin, Eugenia Kalnay, Dhanurjay Patil, and James A. Yorke, University of Maryland

P3.6   Extension of Ensemble Kalman Filtering to 4-dimensions
Tim Sauer, George Mason University
B.R. Hunt, J.A.Yorke, A.V. Zimin, E. Ott, E.J. Kostelich, I. Szunyogh, G. Gyarmati, E. Kalnay, D.J. Patil, University of Maryland

P3.7   On the Importance of the Precipitation Mass Sink In Tropical Cyclones and Other Heavily Precipitating Systems
Gary Lackmann and Richard Yablonsky, North Carolina State University

Session 7:

  

Evolution of Data Assimilation (cont.) and Ensemble Forecasting
Session Chair: Steve Tracton, Office of Naval Research (ONR)

2:00pm

  
7.1   Ensemble Forecasting: History and Future
Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland

2:25pm

  
7.2   Present status and future directions for ensemble forecasting at NCEP
Zoltan Toth, Jeff McQueen, Yuejian Zhu, Richard Wobus, Jun Du and Dingchen Hou, EMC, NOAA/NWS/NCEP
Mozheng Wei, Visiting UCAR Scientist at NCEP

2:40pm

  
7.3   Applications of Ensemble Prediction - A Historical Perspective
Steven Tracton, ONR

2:55pm

  
7.4   The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System: Delivering Global Data for Improved Numerical Weather Prediction
John D. Cunningham1, John M. Haas2, Robert S. Turek3, Craig S. Nelson4
1System Program Director, NPOESS Integrated Program Office
2The Aerospace Corporation
3Raytheon
4General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems

3:10pm

  
7.5   Tests of an Ensemble Kalman Filter for Mesoscale Data Assimilation
Fuqing Zhang, Zhiyong Meng and Altug Aksoy
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University

3:25pm

  
7.6   Assimilation of Satellite Cloud Data into the GMAO Finite-volume Data Assimilation System using Variational Parameter Estimation
Arlindo da Silva, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Peter Norris, Goddard Earth Science and Technology Center, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

3:40-4:10pm

  

Break

4:10-6:00pm

  

Poster Discussion and Historical Exhibit
Poster Session Chair: Kris Harper, Historian of Science
Historical Exhibit Chair: Major Jimmie Trigg, AFWA Liaison to NCEP

Poster Session #4  
P4.1   Intercomparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble forecast systems
Zoltan Toth, NCEP
Roberto Buizza, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
P. L. Houtekamer and Gerald Pelleri, Meteorological Service of Canada
Mozheng Wei, UCAR Visiting Scientist, NCEP/EMC
Yuejian Zhu, NCEP

P4.2   Hybrid Ensemble Predicting System: A New Ensembling Approach
Jun Du, EMC, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and SAIC
P4.3   Medium range predictability associated with anomalous zonal flows over Western North America during Winter
Lee Byerle and Jan Paegle, University of Utah
P4.4   Week 2 Forecasting Skill Characteristics and Flow Regime Association
Peiqun Zhang, National Meteorological Center, China
Wilbur Y. Chen, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP
P4.5   Flow and Regime Dependent Mesoscale Predictability
Fuqing Zhang, Chris Snyder and Rich Rotunno, Texas A&M University
P4.6   Improvements in Extended-Range Temperature and Probability of Precipitation Guidance
Kevin Carroll and Joseph Maloney, III, Meteorological Development Laboratory, NOAA/NWS
P4.7   Improving Predictability of Seasonal Forecasting by NCEP Regional Spectral Model
Jun Wang and Hann-Ming Henry Juang, Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP
P4.8   Forecasting Week 2 Forecasting Skill
Wilbur Y. Chen, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP
Evening

6:00pm

  

Conference Banquet*
Introduction of Norm PHillips
Keynote Speaker: Norm Phillips - "NWP and the Appalachian Storm of November 1950"

*Group Photo Opportunity